Prediction: Washington State Will End Marijuana Prohibition in 26 Months
I've just returned to my home in Washington, D.C. from a trip to the
"other Washington" -- specifically, Seattle. My two visits to Seattle
in the past month have convinced me that Washington state will probably
be one of the first two states to tax and regulate marijuana like
alcohol.
In mid-August, I attended Seattle's Hempfest
for the sixth time in seven years. For those who don't know, Hempfest
isn't your run-of-the-mill marijuana rally. In fact, if it were, I
wouldn't attend. This year's Hempfest, which was the 19th in 20 years,
was the largest yet, with an estimated 300,000 people visiting Myrtle
Edwards Park on the waterfront over two days. Each year, Seattle
Hempfest is literally the largest marijuana-related event in the world.
And bigger is better; there's safety in numbers. For two days each
August, using, possessing, and transferring marijuana for no
remuneration (passing a joint) is legal in the park. For a few years,
this policy was an informal understanding between the Seattle police and
the 100,000+ people they were serving and protecting. But, in recent
years, the higher-ups in the police department have actually directed
their rank-and-file not to arrest people at Hempfest for marijuana
(unless someone is selling it or pushing it on children).
What events preceded this normalization of marijuana?
In 1998, 59% of Washington state voters passed a medical marijuana
initiative; then, in 2007, the Washington legislature instructed the
state Department of Health to define a 60-day supply of medical
marijuana. In 2008, the Department of Health defined a 60-day supply as
up to 24 ounces of usable marijuana and 15 plants at any stage of
growth.
On a separate track, in 2003, 59% of Seattle voters passed a local initiative to make marijuana possession the lowest arrest priority
for local police. After that, the number of arrests within city limits
plummeted, and, in January of this year, the city attorney for Seattle announced that his office would no longer prosecute people for marijuana possession.
Seattle Hempfest both led to -- and benefited from -- the local 2003 initiative victory, for which my organization, the Marijuana Policy Project,
provided substantial funding. For two days each year, Hempfest
attendees see what it's like for the public use of marijuana to be
legal: There's no violence (alcohol is prohibited during the event), and
there's good company and music and speeches. And the police see the
same thing -- especially the no-violence part.
The police and non-police leave with these observations and tell
their friends and colleagues. Over the course of the last two decades,
perhaps 1.5 million people -- most of whom live in Washington -- have
witnessed this phenomenon. Quite simply, Hempfest has changed the local
culture around marijuana. So it's no wonder that the 2003 initiative
passed, which then led to a more formal policy change with respect to
marijuana arrests at Hempfest ... and then the whole city year-round.
And now, support for making marijuana legal has broken the 50%
threshold in the state. The three most recent statewide polls show that
56% of adults support "making marijuana possession legal" (January 2010), 54% of adults support "allow[ing] state-run liquor stores to sell and tax marijuana" (January 2010), and 52% of registered voters support "removing state civil and criminal penalties for possession or use of marijuana" (May 2010).
The 52% figure is probably the most accurate, because it's important
to survey registered voters -- as opposed to all adults -- when you're
thinking about supporting a statewide initiative, as MPP is considering
doing in Washington state for the November 2012 ballot.
Because there are many supportive young people and independent voters
who vote only in presidential elections, it's vitally important to
place difficult-to-pass marijuana initiatives on presidential-election
ballots. Indeed, MPP's initiatives have passed by surprisingly large
margins in Massachusetts, Michigan, and Montana during presidential
elections, while both of our initiatives in Nevada lost during midterm
elections.
If we can agree on an initiative that's drafted to appeal to swing
voters (meaning it can't be too radical) and it's placed on the November
2012 ballot, I predict that marijuana will be made legal in Washington
state in just 26 months.
And this would be a particularly sweet victory, since Gil
Kerlikowske, the White House drug czar, is the former police chief of
... Seattle.